2024–ANOTHER YEAR OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY?

“I am your warrior, I am your justice… And for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution.”

Donald Trump, speaking before the Conservative Political Action Conference, March 4, 2023.

As he descended the Trump Tower elevator in 2015, few considered Trump a contender to win the presidency, much less a threat to democracy. But millions of Americans were willing to extend him the benefit of the doubt, rejecting Hillary Clinton in favor of a man perceived as rude but independent, even a populist. In the years following the 2016 election, the threat became more apparent and was ruthlessly crystallized in one event—the attempt to undermine the  legitimate democratic election of 2020.

Preserving our Democracy and the Republic is a perpetual struggle, but Trump’s continued grip on the Republican party and large numbers of the electorate has brought our clear and present danger to a new level. After the damage he wreaked on our democratic polity during his four years in the White House, many of us understood that it would take several election cycles to repair the political guardrails run over by Trump and his enablers. The first step had to be his defeat in 2020, a formidable task since denying a sitting president a second term is never easy.  The voters, however, had had enough.  The popular vote margin for Biden proved impressive, and the electoral college tally gave him an easy victory. As we soon discovered, however, Trump had plans to undermine the results, and they played out over the course of several months, culminating in the events of January 6. 

The mob and its organizers were unable to complete “the coup,” and Biden took office two weeks later.  But by then a large and vocal minority had been manipulated into thinking that Trump had actually won. And the former president’s allies in Congress fed “the big lie” even as more evidence emerged about its utter falsity. The January 6 Commission effectively did its job, not only undermining Trump’s assertion the Capitol insurgents were simply peaceful protestors but also providing a roadmap for Jack Smith and the Justice Department. Numerous criminal cases were successfully prosecuted across the nation that only confirmed the breadth and width of the conspiracy to overturn the election.

The next challenge would come in the 2022 midterms, where numerous election deniers were on the ballot in key states and polling data suggested that Biden could be dealt a huge setback. MAGA victories could give Trump and his allies control of the electoral apparatus in numerous key states and therefore increase the possibility of political mischief in 2024.  As the dust cleared following the election, the pollsters were proven wrong. Though Democrats would not retain the control of the U.S. House, which continues to include a number of election deniers, they won the majority in the Senate.  

Perhaps more importantly, critical electoral victories occurred in the states, especially those where de facto Trump control could make the 2024 election subject to manipulation. Out of 94 races for governor, secretary of state and attorney general in 2022, just 14 election deniers were were victorious, and those who won were largely  in states that had voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2020. Trump critics such as Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensburger won in Georgia. Democrats flipped the Governorship and Secretary of State in Arizona, casting aside critical election deniers in the process. The Pennsylvania House moved into the Democratic column.  Republicans lost big in Michigan, and Wisconsin elected a progressive to its state Supreme Court. Taken together, these developments make it less likely that the MAGA crowd could generate the type of “alternate electors'' strategy that might have succeeded in 2020. 

Trump legal problems have since intensified, with 91 criminal indictments in state and federal courts and several civil lawsuits, all of which continue to cast doubt on his ability to win the 2024 contest. The economy is much stronger than last year at this time.  Gas prices and inflation have declined significantly from their heights of a year ago.  Real wages are rising. The stock market is making a comeback.  The infrastructure bill is already showing real results in the 33,000 major projects underway across the nation

Despite these developments, the mood of those concerned about the prospects of a Trump reelection remains sanguine.  Biden’s poll numbers have terrible, and Trump’s assertion suggesting that he could become dictator on day one seems to be lost upon many voters.

The 2024 election is simply the most critical election since perhaps 1860.  

DICTATORSHIP IMAGERY SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY

In 2016, it was not entirely clear what Trump would do if elected.  In 2023, he has told us clearly what he intends. First, he will go after his political enemies, most of whom he says can “rot in hell,”  by politicizing the justice department in ways that he clumsily attempted but failed to do at the end of his first term.  Second, he will attempt to root out countless civil servants who are only doing their jobs but are perceived to part of the so-called “deep state.”  Prior to leaving office, Trump signed an executive order, “Creating Schedule F in the Excepted Service,” that would have removed employment protections from certain career officials whose jobs were linked to policymaking.  Not only would this undermine  the independence of the civil service, but could become the justification of a massive purge of so-called disloyal federal employees.   President Biden rightfully rescinded the Order,  but imagine it reinstated at the beginning of a new Trump presidency. 

Third, Trump can use executive powers in ways never before attempted in our history.  Presidential powers have increased over the years, as Congress has ceded more to the executive, and our Supreme Court has done little to restrain  them.  The President has extraordinary powers in the event of a “national emergency,”  which is more easily declared that one might think.  The Brennan Center recently identified 148 statutory provisions that a President can use in self-proclaimed emergencies, in some cases without either congressional or court review.  Remember Trump’s discussion of the possible use of the “Insurrection Act”, a law that allows a president to deploy federal troops to cities in the case of civil unrest without the consent of local or state government.

LEGAL STRATEGIES TO KEEP HIM OFF THE BALLOT MAY BE COUNTERPRODUCTIVE

Unless something dramatically changes, Trump will be the Republican nominee for President.  Some progressives recently have seized hope from the Colorado state supreme court’s decision and the Maine Secretary of State’s finding that since Trump engaged in an insurrection, he is barred from the electoral ballot pursuant to Article 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.  If enough states deny him, or if for some unfathomable reason, the U.S. Supreme finds he is an insurrectionist, the argument goes, we will be saved from another MAGA presidency.  Although there is a strong legal argument that his actions amount to participation in an insurrection, the political strategy behind this approach is flawed, and only feeds Trump’s victimhood.  Many voters who despise the former President are nonetheless uncomfortable with courts intervening to prevent the people from having the chance to vote for whoever they desire. Federal courts in Virginia, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Florida, Arizona, and Rhode Island, and state courts in Michigan and Minnesota have dismissed these cases, and it likely that the U.S. Supreme Court will likely do the same, without ever considering the evidence of his behavior.  Each dismissal will be used by MAGA-land to feed the political interference narrative and further undermine our legal institutions.

IN THE END, IT IS ALL ABOUT THE VOTERS

The courts are necessary to the protection of  our democracy, but are not sufficient to maintain its viability.  That rests with the people. We have seen this power recently exerted on many fronts. The success of numerous ballot initiatives in red states to protect reproductive rights following the overturning of Roe v. Wade shows the effectiveness of grassroots mobilization.  The defeat of many election deniers in 2022 indicates that many voters believe the 2020 election was free and fair.  Virginia Democrats were able to retake the House of Delegates and hold the Senate in 2023, even as Biden’s popularity was low and Republican Gov. Youngkin spent millions on a spectacularly failed bet that he could flip both chambers.  The public has the chance to send Trump and his minions packing in 2024.  Let’s hope we have the energy and skill to do it. 

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