CHAOS CONTINUES; RESISTANCE GROWS
Charlottesville protest draws thousands opposed to Trump policies, 6.14.25
It is difficult to keep up with national headlines, as Trump flits from crisis to crisis in endless attempts to distract the public from a presidency whose legitimacy is collapsing under the weight of incompetence and corruption.
The week brought us a $40 million military parade that evoked images of Soviet Russia and North Korea, more deportation raids in the face of increasing American discomfort, great confusion over tariffs, exposure of the “Big Beautiful Bill” as the massive wealth transfer to the rich that it is, and another saga in the Musk-Trump bromance breakup.
We experienced yet another act of political violence, as a Minnesota state legislator and her husband were assassinated and her colleague and his wife were shot in separate incidents by a person impersonating a police officer. The legislators were apparently targeted because of their outspoken criticism of the President, who, to his credit, quickly condemned the act.
Meanwhile, Americans again took to the streets in over 2,000 communities large and small to assert their support for democracy; while no firm numbers are available, estimates suggest that participation exceeded 2 million people nationwide.[1]
THE CHAOS IS HAVING AN IMPACT
**While the Trump MAGA faithful remain firmly behind the President, their numbers are clearly shrinking, and the president’s poll numbers are tanking. Last week’s Quinnipiac poll placed his overall approval rating at 38%, with respondents disapproving of his performance on every measure tested. By comparison, Biden’s approval rating at a comparable time of his presidency (June 21, 2021) exceeded 50 percent.
**The “No Kings” Demonstrations on June 14 were huge, widespread, and largely nonviolent. For those who believe that these actions do not make a difference, please reconsider. Congress is always the last group to understand the growing resistance, and your attendance reinforces to your community that MAGA support is not monolithic, and certainly not a majority.
**Antideportation demonstrations are spreading. While there have been incidents of unacceptable violence and property destruction, the actions have largely been nonviolent, even as they have been angry.
** Pundits continue to trash the state of the Democratic party. But in 18 special state legislative and congressional elections held through mid-April, Democrats increased their electoral performance in 16, with average increases of 11.5 points over the 2024 presidential race. Their candidates flipped deep-red state Senate districts in Iowa and Pennsylvania, and won the Omaha, Nebraska mayorship. Last week, Democrats exceeded expectations in five of six special elections for state House and Senate legislative districts in Oklahoma, Florida, and Massachusetts.
**The federal courts are largely holding the line against Trump’s most outrageous initiatives. A New York Times analysis concluded that, as of June 12, at least 184 of federal court rulings have gone against the President, including last week’s decision that found Trump’s federalizing of the California National Guard is illegal. In some instances, the administration has been granted reprieves to continue its actions while it appeals, but the language of these opinions, including those by judges appointed by Trump, has been unusually blunt, reflecting grave concern about the president’s actions. In many instances, Trump’s best chance lies in the U.S. Supreme Court, whose decisions are increasingly hard to predict, especially after their recent ruling in the presidential immunity case. Keep current with cases here.
REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP REMAINS SUPPORTIVE
What has not yet happened are cracks in the Republican party leadership. Republican House members continue to be Trump’s main cheerleaders, either because they fear primaries (most continue to duck town hall meetings) or they believe that large budget cuts that hurt needy people while providing tax breaks for the rich is good policy. The Big Beautiful Bill is unpopular with the public, but it is not clear that the Senate will find the courage to fundamentally alter it.
Republican Governors like Virginia’s Glenn Youngkin remain firmly behind the president, even as his policies hurts their constituents. Virginia, for example, is experiencing major layoffs of Virginia residents, tariffs that hurt Virginia farmers, cutbacks in FEMA aid, and Medicaid changes that could throw thousands out of the program.
ANOTHER BIG SHOWDOWN
Trump is the master of distraction, and his federalizing of the California national guard and sending 700 marines to Los Angeles is yet another effort to pick a fight on an issue where he feels he is strongest—immigration. And what a better place to do it but California!
Santa Ana Anti-deportation protest, 6.9.25
After losing several court decisions and experiencing the embarrassment of the return Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia to the U.S. after Trump insisted for weeks that he had no power to have him released from a Salvadoran prison, the president hoped to pick a fight with one of his major critics --- liberal California Governor Gavin Newsom---and perhaps even generate a confrontation in the streets. Homeland security Secretary Noem’s statement that “We are staying here to liberate [LA] from the socialists” did not reduce the tension.
But Trump has a big problem; if one reads the plain language of the federal law upon which he acted (10 U.S.C. 12406), his actions are clearly illegal. Under this statute, state National Guards can be used in federal service for very limited reasons, and only upon orders of a governor, who legally controls the force. Newsom was neither consulted prior to Trump’s actions nor approved of them.
Trump’s action immediately prompted filing of federal lawsuit by California Attorney Rob Boneta. Federal Judge Breyer in the 9th Circuit agreed with Boneta that there is “no rebellion” to justify the president’s action, and it was done illegally without required support of the Governor. Further, another federal law, the Posse Comitatus Act, prohibits federal troops from being used for civilian law enforcement, raising questions about why Trump also sent 700 marines to L.A. CNN reports that White House officials considered using the National Guard and the military for immigration enforcement as early as February.
The California case may find its way to the U.S. Supreme Court, especially if Trump refuses to demobilize the guard in response to further court orders. This would set up an odd contest between the power of the states to control their guards and the power of the President to commandeer them for purposes beyond the authority of the federal statute.[2]
Hopefully, protesters will not be tricked into a violent reaction that could provide a rationale for a Trump escalation. Their rage may be understandable, but burning vehicles and hurtling rocks merely diverts attention from ICE’s heavy handed deportation efforts that divide families.
NATIONAL GUARDS REPORT TO GOVERNORS—NOT THE PRESIDENT
National guards are state entities and report to their respective governors. Rarely are they federalized. Nonetheless, President Eisenhower mobilized the Arkansas national guard in 1956 to ensure peaceful integration of the schools in Little Rock. President George H.W. Bush took similar action in 1992 after the L.A. riots spawned by the acquittal of police officers in the beating of Rodney King.
Significantly, Trump did not mobilize the guard under the Insurrection Act, something that many of us feared and he has not ruled out, choosing instead to justify his action under a rarely used federal statute. The Insurrection Act allows the president to deploy federal troops to suppress insurrections, enforce federal laws, or restore order when state authorities are unable or unwilling to do so. But the law under which the President acted prohibits federalized National Guard members from performing law enforcement duties. They can protect federal forces and property and assist ICE personnel with logistical support, but they cannot arrest people or participate in immigration raids. This is a fine line at best. What happens if guard personnel respond to a perceived or real threat during a protest? Technically, the guard would be violating the law, but few Americans would likely care.
Irrespective of the legal issues, the practical dangers in federalizing the guard can be likened to two major powers facing off in tactical skirmishes on the battleground. One false move, planned or unplanned, could lead to rapid escalation and spreading of the conflict. Americans do not want this to occur. Can Trump say the same?
MEANWHILE IN THE STATES
Many legislatures have completed their sessions for the year, or are about to do so. In upcoming posts, I hope to review various actions taken by the states, which provide further unfortunate evidence that the nation is moving in separate directions, depending on the state in which you live.
From personal experience, the Charlottesville estimate appears correct.
In copycat actions, the Governors of Texas, Missouri, and Virginia mobilized their state guards in advance of the June 14 demonstrations. Since the state guards report directly to governors, these actions are probably legal.
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