FIGHTS OF OUR LIVES: STATES AND THE FUTURE OF U.S. DEMOCRACY
The Launch 3.2.23- Republished March 23, 2023
THE STORM IN TODAY’S POLITICS
Political engagement today can seem like living on the coast through a powerful hurricane. Those who have experienced nature’s wrath know the experience. Winds and water overwhelm human made structures, some of which fall easily in the deluge while others take longer to topple. Waves destroy what many previously thought were indestructible. Throughout the storm, one hopes that the next surge will not be as powerful as the preceding ones, and efforts to protect lives and property will survive the onslaught. That has been the experience of our last two elections, as the nation has confronted challenges that rank among the greatest to our democracy in our history. To date, our institutions have weathered these attacks. But concerns remain that our Republic could be drowned in the next torrent of misinformation, manipulation and malfeasance. We are in the fight of our lives!
That is what this new entry in the Substrack universe is all about–the challenges to democracy and how our 50 states will be key to how these are resolved.
FRONT ROW SEAT
As a former state legislator in the Virginia House of Delegates, I have seen these fights–whether they involve voting rights, reproductive freedom, or educational opportunity–close up and personal. As a trained sociologist, I am conversant with demographic change and social forces in the nation and how they are affecting political decisions. And as an attorney, I understand the legal underpinnings of our body politic, and the importance of state law in determining the future of the nation.
In the periodic posts that will follow, my focus will be on the states. Washington, D.C. exerts a strong gravitational pull on our political perspectives. But we ignore actions taken in state capitols at our peril. Many of the battles for the future of our democracy are being waged daily in each of our 50 states. This newsletter will highlight what is happening in what former Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis called the “laboratories of democracies”—and explain those decisions within a national context. So let’s get started.
DEMOCRACY IN DANGER —2020 AND 2022
The 2020 election proved that a majority of Americans would not stand for a second term of Trump’s demagoguery and division. But to say that Biden’s victory was a tremendous win for democracy is too simplistic. Democrats retained the House of Representatives and generated a 50-50 tie in the Senate, but the party actually lost seats in state legislatures, and many pundits were actually surprised by the strength of Trump’s allies. Moreover, the election created a dynamic rarely witnessed in our history—the loser never conceded, and actively engaged in efforts to overturn a democratic result while undermining the legitimacy of elections themselves. It mattered little that Trump’s legal arguments were dismissed in most every lawsuit or that the mainstream media savaged the misinformation presented by those in Trump world.
The events of January 6 and subsequent investigations showed the breadth of the plan to override the will of the people and reinstall the 45th President. It was aided and abetted both by newly-elected officeholders who openly embraced the “stop the steal” narrative and powerful incumbents who knew the result was fair but had their own reasons to remain allied with Trump. For many of us, the results, while heartening, were too close for comfort. The forces that unleashed Trump remained alive and well in the country, and one election would not be sufficient to quell them.
The next challenge was the 2022 midterms, and defenders of democracy predicted a shellacking at the polls, as countless “election deniers” appeared poised to win seats across the country, including positions from where they could control how elections are run. Pundits were predicting a “red wave” that would transform the U.S. House and convert the Senate into a willing accomplice for partisan investigations, and opposition of “all things Biden.”
When the dust settled, however, the dire predictions were proved wrong. Republicans barely gained control of the House, and, following Raphael Warnock’s fourth victory in two years, Democrats emerged with a two vote margin in the Senate. Perhaps more significantly, defenders of democracy won key statehouse victories in Pennsylvania, Kansas, Arizona, and Wisconsin. In Michigan, not only did Gov. Gretchen Whitmer win reelection in a walk and an abortion rights measure was installed in the state’s Constitution, but both legislative bodies came under Democratic control. Democrats were able to flip the Minnesota state Senate and Pennsylvania House.
Despite these successes, challenges remain. While Republicans lost control of five chambers, they retained majorities in 57 of the 99 state legislative bodies. The number of veto-proof legislative majorities jumped by 5 from 21 to 26; that means that one-quarter of our states are effectively under one-party rule. In some states like North Carolina, Supreme Court elections moved those state’s highest courts strongly in a conservative direction. And it is difficult to predict how the U.S. Supreme Court will rule on the highly controversial and potentially devastating "independent state legislature theory” advanced in Moore v. Harper.
TRUST AND LEGITIMACY
The 2022 election did little to mitigate the crises of trust in our institutions or the polarization that pervades the nation.
The United States remains deeply divided geographically, culturally, and politically. And these divisions are placing increasing stress on our political institutions. An early 2022 NPR/Ipsos poll reported that 64 percent of Americans believe U.S. democracy is "in crisis and at risk of failing." This is a view shared by Democrats and Republicans alike. A Quinnipiac poll released eight months later found that 69 percent of Democrats and 69 percent of Republicans believe that “the nation’s democracy is in danger of collapse.” And each blames the other. The Pew Research Center found that large majorities of both parties think members of the other party are more “immoral,” “dishonest,” “closed-minded” and “unintelligent” than other Americans. Our political tribes are seemingly wrapped in blankets of negative partisanship where we judge the value of ideas (and even people) based on the party that they claim to support.
PROBLEMS OF LEGITIMACY
Trust in government remains at an all time low; since 2007, the proportion of Americans who say they trust the government “always or most of the time” has not surpassed 30%. And this mistrust has now penetrated other institutions. A recent analysis by Kent and Brady found that confidence in nonpolitical institutions such as the media, education, and medicine has been declining as well. The only institution that has escaped the decline has been the military. Even science enjoys less confidence than in decades past. The politicization of COVID policy further undermined the respect of an institution that has been savaged for the last decade during debates over climate change. It has been a subsection of the Republican party who has led the charge against science, but the mistrust has spilled over into the mainstream in ways few would have predicted before the pandemic.
Perhaps more troubling is how trust in an specific institution can vary widely based on political orientation. In decades past, polling data showed consistency in trust levels across political parties. Today, members of different parties also diverge when asked which institutions they trust. Democrats tend to have greater faith in the media, education, and labor than their political counterparts, while religion, the police, and business enjoy greater allegiance within GOP circles. Polarization now determines not only who you trust but what you trust. This makes it even more difficult for the public to agree upon facts, much less concur on what to do with them.
This decline in trust contributes to the political fracturing in the country, and the respect accorded to decisions made by elected leaders. The strength of our institutions depends on perceptions of their legitimacy. If you cannot trust an institution as a source of information, the legitimacy of the institution is eventually undercut. If legitimacy is withheld from enough institutions, the system itself is at risk. That is one reason why the attack on our elections by Trump and his allies are so damaging. If the election system itself is corrupt, why should we accord it legitimacy? And without legitimacy, almost anything can be justified. If people come to distrust the basic institutions that undergird democracy, why support the concept at all?
THE FOCUS ON STATE GOVERNMENTS
So why focus on state governments? First, many decisions made in states impact democracy, the most notable of which involve elections and redistricting. Rules about who can vote are controlled by the states. Drawing the lines within which people compete for Congressional seats are done by the states. Second, policies made in state capitals play key roles in telling our story as a Republic, both the exceptional and the disheartening. The battle over educational curricula is a struggle about how we define ourselves, and how future generations will view our institutions. This is a fight that is being fought in each of our 50 states. Who serves time in prison for what offenses is largely under state control. What about culture wars surrounding guns and reproductive rights? These battles are increasingly fought in the states. Even the future of our energy mix and policy is increasingly a state concern. Finally, the states are training grounds for our national leaders. About 45 percent of the members of the U.S. House and Senate once held roles in state assemblies. State governors frequently ascend to the U.S. Senate, or even the presidency.
This newsletter will engage readers about the trends emerging from policymakers who make their magic outside of the Washington beltway. States matter, and their actions will be key in determining the future of democracy and the character of America. In some cases, the trends will prove disturbing to those who value democracy and opportunity; others will provide strength and optimism about our future. I hope you will join this exploration–and encourage others to do so. So much is at stake. As Benjamin Franklin remarked when leaving the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia two centuries ago, “we have a Republic…if you can keep it.”
David J. Toscano is an attorney and the former Democratic Leader in the Virginia House of Delegates. He is the author of Fighting Political Gridlock: How States Shape Our Nation and Our Lives, published in 2021 by the University of Virginia Press and Bellwether:Virginia’s Political Transformation, 2006-2020, published in 2022 by Hamilton Books.
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