Gloating Is Not a Political Strategy

Court victories are important but it is still all about the election in November

In 2016, the release of the Access Hollywood video was thought to have torpedoed Donald Trump’s presidential bid. 

Eight years later, we are in a different time in a different place. 

For some, Donald Trump’s recent felony convictions creates temptation to pop champagne corks and “party like it's 1999.” When a jury finds, beyond a reasonable doubt, that Trump paid hush money to a porn star to prevent his sexual encounter from affecting the election, it is a welcome sign of legal accountability, and that no person is above the law.  A close review of the post-trial political landscape, however, suggests that such celebration may be premature.  Recent polls show some movement away from Trump, especially among independents, but not enough to cement a Biden victory.  

Manhattan courts building. Trump found guilty of 37 counts by jury on the 16^th floor

Trump’s grip on the GOP appears stronger than ever.  Instead of expressing disappointment with the verdict and proclaiming confidence in a system that permits appeal and possible overturning of the verdict, many Republican leaders went “full MAGA” with attacks on our criminal justice system itself.  While several prominent Republicans, most recently Paul Ryan and Mike Pence, have indicated they will not vote for Trump, the GOP has mainly stood behind him, and key Senators will not commit to supporting an electoral result unless it means another Trump term.  Even in Virginia, where Trump’s presidency was a major factor in Democrats gaining control of the legislature in 2020, leaders parrot the Trump talking points.   One prominent Republican described the unanimous 12-person jury decision as “a rigged show trial”; another called the proceedings a “kangaroo court”.  Representative Ben Cline exclaimed on X that the conviction was the result of years of “lawfare” waged against Trump by the radical Left.”  And Governor Youngkin criticized the trial as “a politically motivated prosecution orchestrated by those who want to “get” President Trump.” These sentiments are hardly vigorous defenses of the Rule of Law! 

A FRIGHTENING SYMMETRY

In Trump world, the trial was not a process by which 12 ordinary citizens unanimously concluded that the ex-president was guilty on all counts, each beyond a “reasonable doubt.” Instead, it is viewed as “election interference,” an extension of politics by other means.

There is a simple yet frightening symmetry to this MAGA analysis, which is based both in victimhood and disrespect for the institutions and democratic processes that make America exceptional. Trump is the ultimate victim, fighting the “deep state” and the “communists, Marxists, fascists and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country that lie and steal and cheat on elections.”  His criminal convictions do not undermine this analysis.  In MAGA world, they bolster it!  How else to explain Trump’s failures to prevail in the 60+ lawsuits in courts from Pennsylvania to Georgia to Arizona attacking the 2020 election results except by arguing that the decisions are products of “crooked courts?”   Or his massive defeats in two separate civil jury trials involving his sexual assault and subsequent defamation of E. Jean Carroll?  Or the award of a $355 million civil penalty by a different judge in a separate case, who concluded that Trump Organization frauds  “leap off the page and shock the conscience?” These only confirm that these separate instances are part of a broad-based conspiracy to get him.

Another New York court where Trump organization found guilty of fraud

Just like elections are presumptively invalid if Trump loses, judge and jury decisions against him must be tainted and crooked, mere products of a corrupt system where judicial actors and laws across many states and localities conspire to undermine the authority of the supreme leader. And that is why this election is very scary. If you run a presidential campaign by rejecting the institutions and constitutional arrangements that undergird democracy itself, why keep them in place after victory?

Trump’s cavalier statements about being dictator for a day, comparing his next term to a “unified Reich,” or his suggestion that massive election fraud “allows for the termination of all rules…, even those found in the Constitution” create alarm for those who value democracy. And new plans have surfaced to bring the U.S. Justice Department under the total control of the executive, thereby creating the very weaponization of the judicial system that he has so vehemently criticized.  Pushed by The Center for Renewing Democracy, a Trump-aligned group whose leaders include self-described Christian nationalist Russ Vought, former Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, and Jeffrey Clark, an election denier indicted in the Georgia election fraud case who nearly became Trump’s Attorney General just prior to January 6, this change will make it easy for Trump to prosecute political foes.   As Trump has said, “I will appoint a real special prosecutor to go after the most corrupt president in the history of the United States of America, Joe Biden, and the entire Biden crime family.” 

When people tell you what they will do, you should listen. Trump’s plans for a second term have clearly been outlined.  If he wins this November, there will be no John McCain, Elizabeth Cheney, or Mitt Romney standing in the way of an agenda that will reshape America as we know it. Now is not the time to gloat over Trump’s criminal convictions; it is time to get to work protecting the Republic.

WILD CARD EXTRA--- SUPREME COURT DECISION ON IMMUNITY

“Equal Justice Under Law” on facade of U.S. Supreme Court building

A possibility, however slight, remains that Trump may face another trial before the election. It would occur in D.C. federal circuit court in the case brought by the Justice Department and Special Prosecutor Jack Smith involving Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election. SCOTUS may find a way to avoid the immunity issue altogether by sending the case back to the district court for some limited fact finding.   But if the justices either reject Trump’s immunity claim altogether or create some form of immunity but find that Trump’s behavior falls outside of it, Judge Tanya Chutkan could schedule a Trump trial before the election. In this scenario, Trump could be back in court during the final weeks of the election, emerging at the end of each day attacking our judicial system. Is another guilty verdict, seemingly likely given the evidence and the venue, in the offing?  And would that make a difference?  These options open (or close) when SCOTUS announces its decision in the next several weeks.