QUICK TAKES ON 2023 ELECTIONS AND DEMOCRACY
The future of our democracy remains uncertain, and its direction will likely take several more elections to determine. But election results in 2023 offer another hopeful sign that perhaps Americans may be resisting influences that pose a threat to essential aspects of our democratic republic.
Reproductive rights were either directly on the ballot or key determinants in the election results in Ohio, Kentucky, and Virginia. During my time in elective office, the question of abortion rights was a litmus test issue, but primarily for voters who opposed it. Abortion opponents would rarely vote for a pro-choice Democrat, but independents and moderate Republicans would occasionally overlook a candidate’s anti-abortion position and cast their vote for the GOP candidate, feeling that Roe v Wade would protect them even if they elected anti-abortion zealots to their legislatures. The Dobbs decision in 2022 turned this political dynamic on its head. The protections had been stripped away, and many now understood that a major struggle was now underway. This fight is now being waged in numerous states, and this election was no exception.
COMMONWEALTH AS BELLWETHER
In Virginia’s election, Gov. Glenn Youngkin and the Republicans took a calculated risk. For the last two years, no major legislative push was made to pass abortion restrictions similar to those enacted in other southern states. More recently, Youngkin advanced what he referred to as a “reasonable compromise” of prohibiting abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Voters did not buy it. While the governor occasionally mentioned including exceptions in the case of rape and to save the life of the mother, his proposal was viewed as a ban. The Democrats seized the issue, and airways were saturated with ads about a possible ban. The election now leaves Democrats with control of both Houses of the General Assembly, and Youngkin’s presidential ambitions in ruins.
OHIO AND DIRECT DEMOCRACY
In Ohio, abortion rights also took center stage. Unlike Virginia, the Buckeye state’s Constitution allows citizen-initiated propositions to circumvent the legislature for a direct vote. And Ohioans took full advantage of it. On November 7, 2023, citizens resoundingly approved a measure to enshrine the right of reproductive freedom in the state Constitution. State Republicans from gerrymandered districts had done everything they could to stop it. They changed the language of the ballot initiative to make it less appealing. They even tried to alter the threshold for passage from a simple majority to 60 percent of the voters (also soundly defeated earlier at the ballot box). Ohio now joins Michigan, Kentucky, Vermont, and Kansas where voters have voted to protect reproductive rights in the aftermath of Dobbs. While they were at it, state voters approved a measure to legalize marijuana, yet another rebuke to a conservative legislature that would not consider the matter.
KENTUCKY-THE BESHEAR STATE?
Kentucky’s Governor Andy Beshear won reelection over a popular republican for many different reasons. He is viewed as a likable pragmatic moderate who stresses kitchen table issues. He certainly was helped by the infrastructure initiatives pushed by the Biden administration and, ironically, Kentucky senator Mitch McConnell. This permitted Beshear, who was never behind in the polls, to tell a story of bipartisan economic opportunity in the bluegrass state and encourage the voters to keep a good thing going. The Kentucky result is interesting because it seems to go against the general nationalization of politics that we are seeing in many other states. The state is extremely red, but Beshear ultimately prevailed. And he did not shy away from abortion, unleashing a powerful ad about a 12-year-old who was raped by her stepfather. The governor still faces substantial headwinds, as Republicans have super majorities in both houses.
STATE SUPREME COURT VICTORY IN PENNSYLVANIA
Last year, it was Wisconsin’s Janet Protasiewicz who gained headlines with her expensive Supreme Court electoral victory in the Badger state. Redistricting and abortion were major issues, and her victory gave Democrats a majority on the court. Yesterday, it was Democrat Dan McCaffery’s turn in Pennsylvania. In a race where spending exceeded $20 million, he won almost 52 percent of the vote. Voting rights and abortion were the key issues. His victory solidifies a Democratic 5-2 majority on the court in this critical state.
VIRGINIA AND NATIONAL TRENDS
The Virginia results reinforce the general trends in the country. Democrats continue to do very well in cities and urban ring suburbs, and poorly in rural areas. Geographical sorting of voters based on political views continues apace, and polarization does not appear to be abating. Looking at the Virginia electoral map five months ago, one could have easily predicted yesterday’s results. Very few seats were really toss-ups and Democrats won just enough of them to gain majorities in both chambers. Several election deniers were chosen by the voters in conservative areas, and the Democrats elected yesterday are more progressive than when I first took office in 2006. There will be many new faces in Richmond this January, as 18 of 40 Senators and 35 of 100 Delegates will be first timers. What this means for policy and politics at the Capitol will unfold this January.