Stakes this November-What to Watch in the 2024 Election-With Updates

"A Republic....if you can keep it...."---UPDATED OCTOBER 28, 2024

FIFTY SEPARATE ELECTIONS

Our most consequential presidential election since the Civil War is not really a national contest. Instead, it is 50+ state races, and the ultimate decision depends on results in four or five states, and relatively small numbers of “undecided” and “low propensity” voters.  How strange that the presidency can be decided in this way, with the least involved citizens assuming the critical role in the future of the nation, but that is yet another consequence of the Electoral College system.  Unless there is a landslide, highly unlikely at the moment, expect a roller coaster ride of epic proportions, as Trump’s operatives sow chaos at polling places and vote-counting centers, and his lawyers argue numerous lawsuits already filed or waiting in the wings.   This will likely delay election results in the key states. If you are interested in following post-election legal shenanigans, see reporting from Democracy Docket and Election Overtime.

Given Trump’s history and his statements on the stump, his victory could imperil our democracy as we know it. But don’t forget the states, where races affecting the future of our Republic will also be decided. There are consequential elections in 44 states this year to fill 78% of the nation's 7,386 state legislative seats (sorry, Virginia, ours come next year).  In Pennsylvania, the Democratic margin in its House is one vote. In Kansas and North Carolina, GOP 'supermajorities' could fall, giving Democratic governors a stronger veto. Republicans are targeting a state senate seat in Minnesota that could break up the state’s Democratic Trifecta and give them control of that chamber. A great guide to relatively unreported races can be found here and here.  Some key states, races and issues to watch include:

PENNSYLVANIA, PENNSYLVANIA, PENNSYLVANIA

The Keystone state, with its 19 electoral votes, is the epicenter of the presidential race, and has been tied for weeks.  Expect Trump to take a lead early on election night until the cities and the suburbs around Philly and Pittsburgh report.  Like 2020, Trump will probably declare victory early in the evening and then ask to stop counting votes. Results will come earlier this year than 2020, but the state remains one of only seven states in the nation (Wisconsin is another) that  does not allow the opening and counting of  mail-in ballots until election day. In addition, Trump allies have already filed lawsuits that will require adjudication before results are finalized. Unless there is a clear victory, then, the winner of this state may not be known for days if not weeks.  

The presidential race is not the only big contest.  Democrat U.S. Senator Bob Casey is a likely winner, but there is also a race for state attorney general, a seat now occupied by a Republican. Watch the 10th congressional seat, now held by a Republican. If Dems win there, it will likely be a good night for them.  Control of the state House of Representatives, now in Democratic hands 102-101, will likely depend on what happens in Bucks County, an area trending blue with several close races.  

Good News Update: Last week, there was a report that 1,200 mail ballots cast in Philadelphia might have simple errors that could disqualify their consideration. To put this in perspective, when the U.S. Supreme Court in 2006 halted vote counting in Florida, George W. Bush was ahead in the state by only 327; that decision gave him the presidency. In response to a lawsuit, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court just ruled that voters can cure those errors by casting a provisional ballot on election day. Voter advocates are now feverishly attempting to make voters aware that they can do this. If they do, their votes will be counted so long as it is not an additional vote.

RAISING ARIZONA, PART TWO

Democrats must win the Senate contest against election denier Kari Lake to have any chance of keeping control of the U.S. Senate.  After winning all statewide offices in 2023, they also feel like they have a great shot to take the majority in either or both the state House and Senate.  Watch the Phoenix suburbs for clues. In addition, a constitutional amendment to protect abortion access is on the ballot, and appears likely to pass.  Finally, state Supreme Court elections involve two judges who upheld Arizona’s 1864 criminal abortion ban. Rarely are supreme court judges defeated in races to retain their seats, but the abortion amendment could create problems for these incumbents.  This state is the western version of Pennsylvania where every vote in every election will count. 

GEORGIA ON MY MIND

If Harris wins here, the game is probably over.  What will be most interesting–and potentially dangerous– is to watch how the state Board of Elections handles the vote reporting. The MAGA-controlled body recently issued new rules that could slow down the vote count and, if Trump loses, may even resist their ministerial duty to certify electors to the Electoral College. Their actions have drawn fire from the Republican governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger, who never appreciated being asked by Trump to “find 11,000” votes so he could win the state in 2020.   Lawsuits are pending and there likely will be more. You can follow the results here.

Good News Update: A Georgia court just ruled that the decisions of the Georgia board are unlawful, and their supreme court has denied the appeal by the RNC. In a big win for voting rights advocates, the court held that certification of the vote totals is a ministerial duty and election officials do not have legal authority to refuse to do so.

WISCONSIN: THE UNRAVELING OF PARTISAN REDISTRICTING

The 2010 midterm election was arguably the most transformative contest in 50 years, and set the stage for the partisan polarization that we see today. Most know about the dramatic changes in Congress, but few realize that Democrats were also wiped out in state legislative races across the nation. Republicans netted 721 seats in the 2010 election cycle out of the 6,064 races on the ballot. When Republicans won majorities in state legislatures, they gained control of redistricting. The most dramatic example of this occurred in Wisconsin under newly elected Gov. Scott Walker and his new GOP assembly. The 2011 Wisconsin redistricting was one of the most partisan gerrymanders in the history of the country, entrenching Republican majorities in both houses of the Wisconsin legislature to this day.  The bias of the 2011 map was best illustrated in the 2018 Fall election, when Democrats won every statewide race, but captured only 36 of the state's 99 Assembly seats.  Biden won the state in 2020.  In 2023, Republicans held 63 of 99 seats in the Assembly and 23 of 33 seats in the Senate. But a court decision recently upended the Republican’s partisan map, and Democrats are poised to pick up enough state legislative states to eliminate the GOP’s supermajority, and perhaps win control of the state’s assembly.

POWER OF THE PEOPLE: BALLOT INITIATIVES CHALLENGE ANTI-ABORTION COURTS AND LEGISLATURES

The overturning of Roe v. Wade created a firestorm in the states. The U.S. Supreme Court’s elimination of a constitutional right immediately triggered abortion prohibitions passed by red-state legislators designed to take effect upon Roe’s demise.  More than 20 states have imposed new limits on abortion since the court’s decision, and  pre-Roe abortion bans in state law for a century in places like Michigan and Arizona suddenly sprang to life to criminalize behavior that was legal the day before the Dobbs ruling was issued.

But red-state legislatures overplayed their hand.  Citizens roundly defeated their efforts in Kentucky, Kansas, and Ohio to amend their state constitutions to ban the procedure.  Advocates for reproductive rights also went on offense, harnessing the power of direct democracy to pass ballot initiatives to insert abortion rights into the state constitutions of California, Vermont, and Michigan.  And,  in what may be the most significant use of direct democracy to affect social policy in American history, proponents of abortion access garnered enough signatures to place constitutional amendments to protect reproductive rights on the ballot in ten states this November. Polling in Arizona and Nevada suggests that amendment proponents will win in those states. In Florida, passage is likely as the measure will need 60 percent of the vote to win. Beyond the federal races, these ballot initiatives are likely the biggest story of the fall election. 

Beyond the reproduction rights amendments, several other citizen initiatives are worth a watch. More than 50 citizen initiatives will appear on ballots in the more than 20 states where they are permitted. Ohio voters have a chance to create a genuine  independent redistricting commission (politicians seized control over a previously adopted citizen commission) and Californians will vote about whether to allow localities to impose rent control.  Florida voters will consider marijuana legislation, Alaska and Missouri will vote on a $15 per hour minimum wage, and several states will consider the adoption of ranked-choice voting. 

WAR OF THE JUDGES

Unlike Virginia, most state supreme court judges face voters at some point in their tenure.  And these elections are gaining greater importance as states assume more responsibility for deciding issues from voting rights to reproductive freedom. Moreover, many post election lawsuits will end up in state supreme courts. With stakes this high, it is not surprising that these races are drawing attention. In 2022, for example,  all records for campaign spending in a judicial contest were obliterated in Wisconsin, when Janet Protasiewicz won election and immediately moved the court in a decidedly liberal direction.  

In 2024, voters will choose judges for 82 supreme court seats (nearly one-quarter of all seats nationwide) and 223 intermediate appellate court seats.  Among the most interesting races are those in Oklahoma, where conservatives are targeting three justices who voted with the majority in a 5-4 decision affirming Oklahoman’s right to an abortion in life-saving situations. Montana’s judicial elections are nonpartisan, but this court’s recent decisions protecting abortion rights under state law, enhancing voting rights, and addressing climate change have motivated conservatives to spend millions in support of their candidates. In Florida, judges who recently upheld abortion bans are now running for retention.   In Arizona, a major effort is underway to unseat Clint Bolick and Kathryn King, judges who voted with 4-2 majority that recently upheld Arizona’s 1864 criminal abortion ban. [Ironically, state voters also will decide whether to extend lifetime tenure to high court judges.]  You can read about high court elections here.

VIRGINIA:  BANK YOUR VOTE.   

Trump seemingly has abandoned the state this year, but Harris’s margins do not appear as large as were Biden’s, and anything can happen.  Remember Republican Glenn Youngkin's razor-thin victory over Terry McAuliffe in 2021.  Republicans control the three statewide offices, and the Governor, despite touting Virginia’s system as “free and fair”,  continues to flirt with the MAGA crowd by ginning up fear that, despite state law, significant numbers of noncitizens will vote. Following the lead of people like Gov. Abbot in Texas, Youngkin issued an Executive Order on August 7 that required the state’s election officials to conduct "daily updates to the voter lists" to remove people who are unable to verify that they are citizens of the United States. Since then, the Governor has been all over the national media proclaiming that thousands of registrants have been removed and our system is more secure (the actual number is about 1600). Most of these registrants apparently were purged because they checked the wrong box at the DMV when they registered. And just like in Texas, reporters have since discovered that U.S. citizens were removed as part of the purge. The U.S. Justice Department filed suit to challenge Youngkin’s actions because they violate a federal law that prohibits systematic purges of the voting rolls within 90 days of an election, and a federal court has now ordered him to reinstate those who were purged. Youngkin has appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court. Alabama recently made a similar attempt, but that too was blocked by a federal court, making Youngkin’s appeal to SCOTUS less likely to prevail.

If you are following Virginia results this November and are looking for a bellwether county for clues, watch Chesterfield. Republicans prevailed in statewide races in 2013(+8) and 2016 (Trump by 2), but Democrats were winners in 2017 (Northam by .6), 2018 (Kaine by 12), and 2020 (Biden and Warner each by 7). The only anomaly was Youngkin’s 4-point win in 2021. In addition, many wonder if Project 2025’s attacks on federal workers will motivate vote-rich NOVA to turn out this year. The answers will be found in places like Fairfax and Prince William counties, where many federal employees or contractors reside.

Under our Commonwealth’s early voting rules, you can vote NOW.  So flex those election muscles and get to the polls!