Will October Surprises Affect Fall Elections?
October is a month for football games, falling leaves — and political surprises. In Virginia, surprises abound — and not just from the University of Virginia’s football team (now sporting an 8-1 record). First, there was the publication of damaging and inappropriate texts from Democrat Jay Jones in the Attorney General race. For most of the campaign, former Delegate Jones led incumbent Miyares, successfully tying him to the president who has fired Virginia federal employees and attacked the Affordable Care Act. Then came publication of the messages Jones sent several years ago to a Republican colleague sarcastically discussing the use of violence against political opponents — messages the GOP withheld until Democrats could not replace Jones on the fall ballot even if they wanted to.
Jones repeatedly apologized and insists that he is better able to defend the state against Trump excesses while advancing Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s agenda. Republicans have pummeled Jones and demanded that Spanberger withdraw her endorsement. Spanberger countered by rightfully condemning the remarks and correctly explaining that the voters need to decide the race. Voters now must weigh Jones’s comments against the Miyares record.
Miyares is not only an outspoken defender of Trump and the MAGA agenda but has not chosen to join other Attorneys General to oppose specific administration policies like cuts in federal employment, research grants, and Medicaid, even if they affect Virginians. He shows no indication that he will defend our universities against federal interference. In the end, elections are contests between two persons and who is most likely to defend the institutions and policies that we hold dear.
WHAT TO WATCH ON ELECTION DAY.
Jones’s fortunes are linked to Spanberger’s performance. If she wins by 9 points (Northam’s margin in 2017), her coattails will be long enough to bring him across the finish line. If the victory is closer to 5 points, a win will be more challenging. In 2017, Democrats flipped 15 House seats and almost took the majority. They now hold a small margin in the House and are seeking to expand it. Their ability to do so will largely depend on Spanberger; as she gets closer to a double-digit win, chances improve for Democrats to increase their margins. Virginia Democrats would then hold the governorship and both houses of the General Assembly.
Virginia Joins Redistricting Wars
When Texas and President Trump decided to embark on an unprecedented midterm redistricting to protect Republican margins in the U.S. House, Democrats felt the need to respond. The Texas redistricting is only the third time since 1970 that this has been done solely for partisan advantage. Despite warnings from California Democrats that they would respond in kind unless Texas relented, the Lone Star State pushed ahead. California responded, and red state legislatures in North Carolina and Missouri are now drawing new maps to gain partisan advantage. Virginia Democrats have now joined the fray, and the legislature just proposed changes that could create new congressional lines.
It is an extraordinary gambit. Changing Virginia’s congressional map requires a constitutional amendment — a heavy lift. Virginia’s Constitution requires the General Assembly to pass identical language of a proposed amendment twice — with an election for the House of Delegates in between. That’s why Democrats are taking the first vote before this November’s election. After a second vote this January, the amendment will then need to be approved by voters. In today’s polarized climate, they feel they have little choice but to answer Texas’s move in kind. Not surprisingly, Virginia Republicans are crying foul and have filed a lawsuit to challenge maps not yet drawn. In fact, the proposed amendment draws no new maps; instead, it provides the legislature an opportunity to do so only if other states go through with their partisan plans.
Midcycle partisan redistricting is the inevitable result of the 2019 U.S. Supreme Court decision in Rucho v. Common Cause, a case that Republicans celebrated at the time that prevents federal courts from reviewing partisan gerrymandering. The case has intensified division in the states, with each party justifying its new maps by citing the last outrage of the other. And in Virginia, the General Assembly’s action creates a precedent that potentially upends our long history of making constitutional amendments difficult and subject to political marination for years before adoption. But with a Republican Congress unwilling to check the president’s abuses and Republican states scheming to manipulate the midterms, Democrats see few alternatives other than mount their own offensive.
WHAT TO WATCH THIS NOVEMBER
Although Virginia’s constitutional amendment on redistricting is not on this fall’s ballot, California’s is. Polling suggests that voters will approve it, thereby allowing new lines to be drawn to balance those in Texas.
Surprises Continue at UVA
When your state’s Attorney General and your university’s governing board refuses to fight federal interference, bad things happen. In June, the U.S. Department of Justice forced President Jim Ryan to resign his post under circumstances that have never been satisfactorily explained. At the beginning of October, Interim President Paul Mahoney and the Board of Visitors surprised many by declining to join Trump’s “Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education.” And two weeks ago, the Department of Justice agreed to “pause” its investigations of UVa in exchange for the university’s pledge to conform to civil rights laws as dictated by the DOJ.
The agreement includes welcome reassurances about academic freedom, and UVa avoids both an external monitor and financial penalties — no small achievement given the circumstances. But the threat of DOJ interference still looms large : UVA has committed to do more than the law requires to unwind its efforts to expand diversity, and DOJ retains the right to resume its investigation if it concludes that UVa is making “insufficient progress toward compliance.”
Other lingering questions remain. The BOV never fully explained what happened last June, when Jim Ryan’s forced resignation was widely reported as a quid pro quo for ending the DOJ probe. Why Ryan stepped down without a specific agreement remains a mystery — and left the university exposed to federal interference and the loss of critical federal funds. The word “malfeasance” still echoes through the halls of the state Capitol as legislators question the role played by the board and its rector in Ryan’s ouster. State Sen. Creigh Deeds has aggressively sought answers, only to be stonewalled by UVa lawyers and Attorney General Jason Miyares’ office. UVa is a public university, and citizens deserve to know what transpired, why and how it affects the future of our flagship institution. Meanwhile, both Gov. Glenn Youngkin and Miyares remain conspicuously silent. Whether Miyares will be affected electorally is not clear.
Adding to UVa’s problems is a new federal lawsuit filed this month by several physicians and patients against the UVa Health System, former administrators and the Board of Visitors. The claims are unprecedented, with the plaintiffs alleging that the hospital’s former CEO and others were involved in a criminal racketeering conspiracy. The financial risks for all parties will escalate dramatically if former administrators respond with countersuits for defamation. Some suggest that more responsible leadership from the present rector and state officials last spring might have prevented this escalation.
OTHER THINGS TO WATCH ON TUESDAY.
The only other Governor’s race on the ballot is in New Jersey, where Mikie Sherill has maintained a consistent but not large lead in the polls over her Republican opponent. But there are other significant elections to watch, especially in Pennsylvania, where the ideological balance of the state supreme court could be determined by three separate contests. And then there is the New York City mayoral race, where newcomer Zohran Mamdani is predicted to prevail over former Governor Andrew Cuomo. But to judge the degree of Trump backlash, pundits will look at Virginia.
Portions of this were published in the Richmond Times Dispatch and Charlottesville Daily Progress.