2024 ELECTION TAKEAWAYS

SEARCHING FOR SILVER LININGS

Election Day arrived with my American idealism intact, even as I felt an unsettling sense of existential dread.

Despite polling that indicated a close race, I could not fathom Trump winning another term.  He is a convicted felon. Our intelligence community and allies consider him a clear and present danger to our national security, even without January 6. He is just too old and unhinged to be President. And that is before we begin the analysis of his policies, from Project 2025 to proposed large tariffs that will impact everyone’s pocketbook. Clearly, the majority of Americans did not agree.  So what happened? And what comes next?

Deep divisions about what is important

For a large portion of the country, democracy was top of mind, and January 6 was the touchstone event driving our antipathy of Trump.  Significant numbers of Trump voters, however, viewed the preservation of democracy as protecting a way of life that has been destroyed by decades of economic dislocation and cultural disruption. For them, the solution was a “strong leader,” epitomized by an angry man instead of an intelligent, joyful woman.

The Economy remains King. 

On election night, John King at CNN produced an interactive map correlating the impact of inflation with vote totals. In general, the stronger the inflation impact on a community, the deeper the red color on the map.  Despite statistics showing that the economy is stronger today than when Trump left office, what people define as real is real in its consequences.  The Biden economy was anything but a “disaster,” but many are still hurting–and they blame the people in power for their pain.  Enough Americans were willing to reject “keeping a good thing going” in favor of a person who they believe will “fix it.”

Dobbs was not enough to swing the election. 

Americans apparently did not believe that Trump could secure a national abortion ban and were doubtful that Harris could do the reverse.  Women voted for Harris, but not in the same numbers as they did for Biden.  In several states such as Arizona, Missouri and Florida, voters protected reproductive rights by approving state constitutional amendments, but then supported candidates that opposed them.  

Where were the Democrats?

Trump ran only slightly ahead his popular vote totals for 2020. But Harris substantially lagged behind Biden. Though she will gain some when the count is completed, her totals may trail Biden’s by 8 million. We know that major cities like New York, Philadelphia, and Chicago did not turn out the Democratic vote as expected. Was it a desertion of black men, who could not bring themselves to vote for a woman. Was it a youth vote alienated by Biden’s position on Israel. Further analysis will tell.

In Virginia, Democrat turnout was also down, though some of that can attributed to the state not being in play. While Harris won Northern Virginia localities by about 394,000 votes, thereby offsetting Trump’s lead of about 165,000 votes across the rest of the state, Biden’s 2020 total generated a difference of 521,000 votes. Harris’s percentage margin in the Commonwealth was about the same as Clinton’s in 2016, almost half of Biden’s victory.

Direct Democracy Brings Progressive Victories.  

Ballot initiatives were a bright spot in what was otherwise a disappointing night.  Measures to protect abortion rights in state constitutions won passage not just in blue states like Colorado, Maryland, and New York, but also in Arizona, Missouri, Nevada, and Montana (about 57% of voters in Florida voted for a similar measure, but it did not meet the 60% required threshold for inclusion in the constitution). This adds seven states to the six — including conservative Kansas and Kentucky —where similar ballot initiatives were passed in 2022.  

In addition, voters in Alaska and Missouri approved ballot measures to raise minimum wages to $15 an hour and  allow workers to accrue at least five sick days. Colorado, Kentucky and Nebraska rejected school choice  initiatives that would authorize public money to be spent on private education. And Washington state voters defeated efforts to undo the state’s cap-and-trade program, which is designed to place costs on greenhouse gas emissions that are then invested into clean energy  projects.

States will be more important than ever.

If Democrats can gain control of the House of Representatives, sweeping changes requiring legislation at the national level will be unlikely. If they do not, Trump will be further emboldened. In either case, states will remain on the front lines of educational policy and funding, criminal justice, voting rights, health care, and even energy policy.  Here are some of the shifts in the state legislatures and supreme courts that are worth noting:

1. While Trump was winning Wisconsin, Democrats eliminated a GOP supermajority in the State Senate and gained additional seats in the Assembly, continuing a process to build back after the GOP redistrictings in the last two decades. 

2.     Trump narrowly won North Carolina, but Democrats prevailed in races for Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General, and the GOP supermajority in the House appears to have been broken.   These wins will strengthen the veto power of Democratic governors Tony Evers in Wisconsin and newly elected Josh Stein in N.C. 

3. Democrats failed to dismantle Republican supermajorities in Kansas and Kentucky, and could not prevent Minnesota Republicans from gaining a tie in its state Senate and the Michigan GOP from flipping enough seats to win a majority in its lower chamber..

4. Arizona Democrats appear to have picked up a Senate seat, generating a tie in the body where all statewides elected officials are blue.

Wrap Yourself in the Rule of Law. 

We are a constitutional republic where the excesses of the Executive and legislatures are checked by the judiciary.  Expect Trump to make bold moves that may only be countered by the courts.  Also expect red legislatures to keep pushing the envelope on voter restrictions that will then undergo state constitutional challenges. That is why judicial elections and appointments are so important. In the last few years, new judges in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have moved those state courts in a more moderate direction, and Michigan just expanded its Democratic majority to 5-2. Conservative candidates for the Kentucky and Arkansas supreme courts were defeated and the philosophical breakdown in Montana remains the same. In Ohio, however, hopes for a more moderate Supreme Court were dashed as all three Republicans won, boosting the conservative majority to 6-1. A great analysis is found here. 

Virginians, the Sun will Come Out Tomorrow.

Trump did not flip Virginia, Tim Kaine won handily, and the partisan breakdown of our congressional delegation did not change, but the GOP is seizing on lower Democratic turnout to argue that they have a chance in the Governor’s race next November.  To do so, they would have to reverse historical precedent where the party in the White House fails to win the Governor’s race (McAuliffe’s victory in 2013 was the only recent anomaly, but he won with only a plurality of the vote).  Nonetheless, elections are won in the trenches with good candidates and strong support. That is what it will take next November to prevail.